The big question.

This article appeared in the Guardian on Monday.

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http://media.guardian.co.uk/mediaguardian/story/0,,1995278,00.html

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It was stimulated by the IPA's report - The Future of Advertising and Agencies.

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It's obviously the good news this blog was looking for... not least because it forecasts growth of 6% per annum in ad spend over the next 10 years.

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In the article Simon Marquis identifies some of the reasons why we're destined to be survivors into the next decade, but he doesn't explain what an 'advertising agency' might look like if it's to do this. In fact, you get the impression that he's betting on the holding companies not the agencies.

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Personally I don't want to work for a holding company. If you share that aspiration, what do you think we need to do to enjoy the benefits of all that extra money?

Comments

[richard]

I have literally no idea what the IPA is on about - literally none.

[Simon]

I have a question.

For arguments sake lets look to a future where due to increased penetration and use of PVRs, media fragmentation and the growth of online, TV advertising is significantly less effective than it is today.

Naturally, advertisers will move funds to more effective media, as is already happening. We're already busy working out ways to get consumers to come to us, as we can't rely on interrupting their beloved TV.

So as broadcaster's advertising revenues continue to decline, where will the money come from to make the TV programmes?

If we follow the "death of TV advertising" to its logical conclusion, there will be no money from advertising to fund programme production.

Programme funding is additionally under pressure due to the BBC's license fee going down in real terms, and Channel 4's public funding is threatened.

Will we get to the point where viewers will understand the relationship between advertising revenue and the programmes they watch?

Will they be given the choice between extremely high subscriptions and no ads, and a cheaper subscription where they watch ads?

Channel 4 now makes a massive part of their back catalogue available from 49p per show. Yet their own research shows that viewers would prefer it to be free in return for watching some ads.

Thoughts?

[john]

Five models to think about:

C4 online
Sky Sports
HBO
LoveFilm
ITV

And there are others, obviously.

I forsee a televisual class system emerging.