April 03, 2007

12 is the meaningless number

I was recently shown some data about levels of consumer trust in various companies, institutions and information sources. One of the findings was that 12% of people believe what they read on blogs.

Hmmm.

Does that mean that 88% of the people reading this post think I made that statistic up?

What if I tell you that 2+2=5? How many readers believe that?

Surely the truth is that most people believe some of the stuff they read on blogs some of the time and the problem with a question as dumb as the one that yielded that finding is it tells us nothing at all.

Anyone got any more dumb questions they'd like to submit? (And that one doesn't count.)

March 20, 2007

Not dead yet

Thinkbox, the guys responsible for marketing commercial TV in the UK, issued their first Topline Telly report the other day. You can find it here... Download thinkbox_tv_snapshot_2006.ppt 

There's encouraging news in it with respect to TV viewing, but I'm not sure that some of it isn't a little rose-tinted. Because now the times really are a-changing, it's crucial that we understand what is actually happening to the general public's TV consumption. So I thought I'd try to get to the bottom of two of their key findings.

Open up the document and have a look at slide 5, which makes the point that people are being exposed to 3% more commercial impacts in 2006 vs 2005 and 8% vs 2004. This clearly sounds likes good news, but when you move to the next slide it reveals that we're watching slightly less telly than we used to. (Comparing 2006/5 vs 2004.) So the increased impacts could be a function of one or more of the following: maybe people are seeking out the ads they're so enthusaistic about them (and then again...), we could be watching more of the channels that are loaded up with ads, conceivably we're watching at times when there are more ads on air, possibly, even, there are now more ads on TV, or maybe there's some other reason that I can't think of at the moment. Analysis of the BARB panel ought to be able to separate out these different factors.

The next thing that looks encouraging is slide 19. Here we can see data apparently running counter to those I've directed you to before from Richard H. But there are a couple of caveats. First the sample size - as I understand it there are only 130 people on the BARB panel who have a PVR, making the data a little shaky. Second, I don't think the data is longitudinal. In other words, I believe that Thinkbox have drawn attention to the fact that people with PVR's are more likely to be heavy TV viewers (that's why they invested their cash in a TV wactching machine) and are therefore are more likely to be exposed to commercials. Not exactly a break-through finding, and more importantly possibly leading us to conclude that we should be celebrating the arrival of PVR's rather than worrying about them.

Of course I may be wrong, and I hope I am, but I thought I'd send a link to this post to Thinkbox and see what they say.

March 19, 2007

Someone's listening

I've received a sort of satisfactory response to my question about the volume at which ads are broadcast from Geoff Russell, the IPA secretary and director for media affairs. I've posted his comments below, but in short it seems like there maybe some new regulation in the pipeline. I only hope someone is still watching TV when the consultation paper turns into action...

You may be interested to hear that BCAP (Broadcasting Commitee of Advertising Practice) is about to issue a consultation paper in this area.

Clearly it is in no-one's interest to upset viewers by making commercials excessively loud - and I am sure that you know that there are rules in this context, with the ASA actually censuring broadcasters when they believe a break has been significantly louder than the surrounding programming.

Having said this, we are all aware of occasions when ads do seem to come over as particularly strident.

In fact, between 1 September 2005 and 1 December 2006, the ASA received

245 viewer complaints about the perceived high sound levels of TV advertisements. Viewers supplied transmission details in 43 cases and, of those, 11 were felt likely to have breached rule 6.9 of the BCAP TV Code.

This is clearly not a large figure given the '000's of commercials likely to have been transmitted during this period, but it is nevertheless something which needs to be looked at.

As indicated, at present, volume in commercials is governed by rule 6.9 of the BCAP Code.

This currently states:

6.9 Sound levels in advertisements

"Advertisements must not be excessively noisy or strident. Studio transmission power must not be increased from normal levels during advertising.

Note:

The peak level of sound at the studio output should not exceed +8dBm.

To ensure that the subjective volume is consistent with adjacent programming, whilst also preventing excessive loudness changes, highly compressed commercials should be limited to a Normal Peak of 4 and a Full Range of 2*4 (measured on a PPM Type IIa, specified in BS6840:

Part 10, Programme Level Meters). A fairly constant average level of sound energy should be maintained in transitions from programmes to advertising breaks and vice versa so that listeners do not need to adjust the volume. A perceived loudness meter may be useful where sound levels might cause problems."

BCAP is aware that broadcasters with otherwise excellent records of compliance with the BCAP TV Code have been found in breach of rule 6.9 on more than one occasion.

According to them, this indicates that the existing rule is leading to confusion among broadcasters; particularly regarding an uncertainty about what constitutes an appropriate sound level for a TV advertisement

- other than (and here it gets technical!) somewhere between PPM 4 /

+0dBm or lower (for highly-compressed advertisements) and PPM 6 / +8dBm

(the peak level of sound at the studio output).

It may be then that the present rule relies too heavily on perceptions of "loudness", rather than providing an objective method for measuring the loudness levels of the broadcast output.

Given this, BCAP has proposed to revise the current rule to provide greater certainty for broadcasters - while maintaining the consumer protection afforded by the existing regulation.

However, while this might mean that advertisements should not peak over the normal subjective loudness levels of programmes, it may not be possible to eradicate entirely the effect of advertisements seeming louder if they are aired during a programme with mostly quiet content (such as a period drama with extended sections of softly-spoken dialogue) than if they are aired during a programme with a mostly loud content (such as motorsport).

In a nutshell - what this all means is:

- we recognise that there is an occasional problem in this area

- no-one is deliberately doing it

- steps are being taken to address it.

February 28, 2007

Our very own digital divide

The link below takes you to a chart gleaned from the TGI. It shows you the proportion of the users of most of our brands that don't have access to the internet.

Download no_internet_at_home_or_work.doc 

You'll see that the proportion is quite high for some of our brands. In the case of Febreeze for instance, it's nearly 60%. (Of course the data will be a little out of date by now.)

I raise the issue as a warning, perhaps most of all for me. As we've become more and more dependent on the internet as a tool - we need to remember that what we see, read and hear on the net isn't representative.

As we used to say; Some people think the internet is a bad thing. What do you think?

February 23, 2007

He's one I made earlier

Our new Fairyconomy campaign has received the ultimate accolade... a UG spoof on YouTube... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNBZu0IpkPA

It put me in mind of an essay I wrote a year or so ago for the aol/discuss website. Since that site is now in mothballs I thought I'd post the essay here. Download out_of_control_v2.doc  Times have moved on, obviously, but it may still hold a little interest.

February 15, 2007

I'm not deaf, you know. Yet.

Earlier this week, unable to locate the remote commander for the PVR, I found myself exposed, unusually, to some advertising; an experience that reminded me of Ivor Hussein.

In the dim and distant past (1995) Ivor, who was the then researcher in the then media department of the then Lowe Howard-Spink, conducted a delightfully elegant analysis of the BARB panel, in order to quantify a phenomenon we’d observed qualitatively, that of Ad Avoidance – the tendency of some people to flip channels during the commercial breaks.

Ivor’s analysis involved examining the viewing patterns of each of the c.5000 members of the panel over a five year period. For each person, he quantified the total number of minutes of commercial television watched and then established the proportion that was to the commercials themselves. He then compared each panel member’s ratio with the ratio that had actually been broadcast and was thus able to classify people in accordance with how much advertising they were avoiding.

Remember this was back in the days of (mostly) only 4 channels and incomplete remote penetration but even then, the analysis revealed that only a third of the population were not engaging in some form of avoidance behaviour. At the other end of the spectrum, a third of the population were classified as Extreme Ad Avoiders, avoiding, on average, 29% of the commercials they ought to have been exposed to.

(Incidentally, Ivor now works as a freelance consultant, so anyone wanting similarly elegant analysis should contact him here i.hussein@btinternet.com.)

One would clearly expect the incidence and extent of avoidance to have multiplied considerably since 1995, with the increase in the number of channels, penetration of remotes, PVR’s, entertainment choices, clutter, etc on the one hand and decline in ad liking (see ‘Are we doomed?’ post below) on the other. But there might be another factor at work too.

EXACTLY HOW LOUD DO THE COMMERCIALS NEED TO BE?

Surely the response of any normal human being to having Michael Winner entreat them to “Calm down, dear” at 135dB, is to do the opposite and begin to frantically scrabble amongst the half empty beer cans, copies of the Sun, piled up plates, children’s toys, dogs, cats and other detritus, in search of the remote for the vital protection of their tympanic membranes. And, once they’ve done that, well they might as well check what’s on channels 6 through 965, mightn’t they.

So here’s an idea, for anyone who shares my pov. Let’s start a campaign to lower the levels at which commercials are broadcast in the hope that, as a result, more people will hear (and see) them.

Where do we start?

February 06, 2007

Read this, it could transform your life

http://www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,,2001647,00.html

Do you agree with Gary Ruskin, that it's "sad and pathetic" or is it possible to create 'tipping points'?

January 30, 2007

Time to jettison the creative department

Six years ago, Fay Weldon wrote a book called The Bulgari Connection, “a thrilling satire on London’s super-rich”, or so the blurb on the back of the dust-jacket says.

The novel’s publication came to my attention via Front Row on BBC Radio 4, where the critics were getting more than a little heated about its origins. Apparently Bulgari paid the former-JWT copywriter turned authoress “a six figure sum” to write the book, on condition that she mentioned the brand twelve times in the narrative. Weldon hugely over-delivered, giving the jeweller more than three dozen name-checks, as well as incorporating it in the title. A snippet will give you a feel…

“Clasped round her neck, falling in roundels of bright colour against her firm creamy skin was a Bulgari necklace, steel and gold set with cabochon emeralds, rubies, sapphires and brilliant cut diamonds, made in the sixties and insured for £275,000.”

The Bulgari Connection is thought to be the first example of a writer being paid to include the name of a brand in a novel, an example that was followed, pretty quickly, by Carole Matthews, a ‘chick lit’ writer, who Ford paid to include references to the Fiesta in her novels, like this…

"I look out of the window of the shop and eye my lovely Ford Fiesta Roxanne with something approaching misery. Last year was a different story. Business was booming and I splashed out on my first-ever new car. Brand spanking new - complete with enough gadgets to keep even Alex amused. She's red, raunchy and drives like a dream and now, she's got to go. Believe me, it will be like cutting off one of my own arms."

For the time being at least, I merely note the existence of these works and make no judgments as to their artistic merits, or to their effectiveness in positively shaping attitudes towards the brands, assuming that’s what they’re supposed to do. (The first of those questions is for your subjective assessment, while the latter ought to be addressed in another post.) Instead, the issues I want to address here are the implications of this kind of development for our industry and the future structure of what, for now, is called an advertising agency.

Of course there’s nothing really new about brands inveigling themselves into the world of art, especially cinema and TV where product placement has been in play since the 1970’s (I think). Nevertheless, the commissioning of these books triggered the beginnings of my own mental seismic tremor and attendant aftershocks.

First off, I started wondering how far brands could go in their invasion of the artistic cultural space. This isn’t simply a matter of Broccoli and Saltzman auctioning off the ‘official James Bond nasal hair trimmer’ spot to the highest bidder, long after Ian Fleming has hung up his typewriter. These books were created specifically as vehicles for the brands concerned and, what’s more, in an art form, literature(-ish), that’s usually thought of as one of the more highbrow and pure. (What's the likelihood of a Bird’s Eye Potato Waffles commissioned Tracey Emin installation at the Serpentine?)

My second realisation was that the brand owners had skipped right over us (the advertising agencies) to the artists themselves. Presumably Bulgari and Ford’s conventional marketing budgets were diminished in line with their investments in the Mss Weldon and Matthews.

Assuming we wanted to avoid being dis-intermediated in this way, how would we come to the conclusion that a novel was the right solution to a brand’s problems? Could Mediacom help us? If not, Naked? And assuming we could get that far, how would we go about commissioning it? Has anyone got William Boyd’s 'phone number?

(By the way, in case you’re worrying about my finger-on-the-pulse-ness, I should re-iterate that this damascene moment did take place more than 5 years ago.)

Since the turn of the millennium a couple of other significant themes have unfolded over the marketing landscape. The first is the broadening of the traditional advertising agencies’ palates to include a raft of solutions beyond the conventional 60” spot, 96-sheet poster or newspaper DPS. There are dozens of interesting examples, but Fallon’s BMW Films (and later the Audiobooks) made the biggest impression on me, especially when they were acknowledged with an IPA effectiveness award in 2004. As Laurence Green observed, in his review of 25 years of Adworks… (the BMW films) “usher in a dramatically new marketing model… one where traditionally punitive media costs are traded for an investment in content...  40,000 people have ordered the BMW Films DVD.  Might the paid-for marketing of the future sometimes be paid for by consumers rather than clients?”

The more recent, and far cooler (for the time being) phenomenon, is User Generated Advertising. Several of the earlier posts on this blog have drawn attention to this new form of competition, not least ‘Another nail’, which revealed the alarming displacement of TBWA from the Sony PS3 launch, in favour of a bunch of spotty kids surrounded by piles of pornographic magazines and ashtrays overflowing with roaches. For the time being I’ll call this stuff ‘iUGA’ (invited user generated advertising) like the stuff that backfired so miserably for the Chevy Tahoe, and unlike ‘spontaneous UGA’, such as the George Masters iPod mini tribute. I’ll dub the Fay Weldon/Carole Matthews/Tracey Emin(maybe not) material AGA (artist generated advertising) and our product; whether it’s a TV commercial, a mailer, a guerrilla pavement sticker, a website, a petrol pump grip or even old-fashioned product placement; PGA (professionally generated advertising). In all three instances I’m using the term advertising in its broadest possible sense. Also I guess that someone somewhere has already coined some official terms for this stuff. In which case, if you know them, I’d be grateful for your illumination.

In the light of these developments, the most screamingly obvious observation has to be that if we continue doing what we’re doing, we’re going to get seriously marginalised. And fast. Our already dwindling revenues will shrink further, as marketing monies get diverted into AGA, iUGA and, as everyone’s already recognised, ever more esoteric forms of PGA that we have no capability to deliver. Before very long we’ll reach a tipping point, where our capacity to provide something useful to our clients will dwindle to the negligible and, to the extent that we still have one, our seat at the top table will vanish. 10% commission, or equivalent, will then start to look like nirvana. (By the way, n° 2, I’m old enough to remember when it was 15%.)

This maybe overly simplistic, but I think you could say we presently stand at a fork in the road. One direction leads to us further and further diversifying our offering; perhaps under one roof, maybe above one bottom line, possibly with some brand continuity (Grey Advertising, iGrey, Grey Arts and the like) or, more likely some hybridised version of all this. As I write, we, and most other agencies, are progressing along this path. (Have a look, for example, at Engine, who are wrapping it all up rather nicely.) There is however a problem with following this route to its nth degree. Where do you stop? Do you ultimately need Amis, Albarn, Attenborough et al sitting in your offices, twiddling their thumbs while awaiting the next AGA brief? Will you have to employ a portakabin full of spotty kids to fulfil the iUGA brief, when it comes? Before too long the overheads could get pretty scary, even taking into account the fact that the kids will probably work for pennies, pizzas and porn. But if you bottle out and stop part way down this path, how will you be able to convince the client that the solution you’re proposing for their brand is genuinely the best one and not just the one that you happen to be able to provide at a reasonable margin?

The alternative fork, which gives its sentiment to the title of this post, assumes that the problems identified by these questions are ultimately insurmountable. This path imagines that, perhaps, we should be reducing our executional capabilities not increasing them. Perhaps we should jettison the creative department (or maybe they should jettison us). Perhaps we should outsource the executional part of our offering completely. Perhaps we should re-create ourselves as genuinely neutral brand consultants who draw in the ‘executors’ only when necessary. (Of course we’d need a proper in-house communications planning function if we were to make this work.) We could then post our briefs, be they for AGA, iUGA or PGA on a website and invite tenders for jobs as and when they arise, a bit like creativebrief.com does. We could have Tom Wolfe slug it out with Philip Roth for the penning of the Tricity Bendix tumble drier novella series. And Sting pitching against Rod Stewart for an anthem to Kellogg’s Strawberry Pop Tarts. Alan Bennett scrapping with Tom Stoppard over the Aquafresh Extreme Clean screenplay. And so on. And we’d only have to pay them if they did a decent job of it. Equally we could post our advertising briefs on the website and the people now employed in our creative department could pitch for the next Pantene commercial, if they felt so inclined.

The new agency, moulded in this form, would probably comprise: a management team that includes most of the discipline heads within an existing conventional ad agency, a reduced account management department, a re-configured planning department with both brand and communications channel planning skills and an office services department including some IT, HR, finance and the like. Most traffic and production skills, some planning skills and most executional creative skills would then be brought in on an ad hoc basis, probably via a combination of an online marketplace and the old-fashioned ‘little black book’.

Some questions that arise…

Would you want to work in this kind of agency? I know I’d miss the creative department’s constant stimulation/provocation.

Possibly our most under-estimated skill as ad folk, is our reductive thinking ability. This, I think, is largely honed by the requirement to be fascistic in our single-mindedness. If we were disconnected from the creative function, would this skill eventually atrophy? Certainly, the output of brand consultancies is often double or triple-headed and I believe this is because they’re disengaged from the consequences of their output.

Where will the big brand ideas come from? aol/discuss, which incidentally included PGA, AGA, iUGA and sUGA, emerged from an in-house creative department. Could Grey have got to this without a team in the employ of the agency working on the brief?

And there’s more, lot’s more questions, but I’ll leave those and any answers or related observations to you.

January 29, 2007

Another nail

An article from today's paper.

Check, in particular, the last three paragraphs, which raise 'the big question' again.

http://media.guardian.co.uk/mediaguardian/story/0,,2000468,00.html

January 24, 2007

The big question.

This article appeared in the Guardian on Monday.
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It was stimulated by the IPA's report - The Future of Advertising and Agencies.
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It's obviously the good news this blog was looking for... not least because it forecasts growth of 6% per annum in ad spend over the next 10 years.
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In the article Simon Marquis identifies some of the reasons why we're destined to be survivors into the next decade, but he doesn't explain what an 'advertising agency' might look like if it's to do this. In fact, you get the impression that he's betting on the holding companies not the agencies.
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Personally I don't want to work for a holding company. If you share that aspiration, what do you think we need to do to enjoy the benefits of all that extra money?

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